Good, I have all the IDs. Now let me run the queries for the matchup analysis with different sideboard counts for each card.
Let me fix those queries:
Interesting — the match results all show 0 wins/losses/draws. The total_matches are being counted but result values seem off. Let me investigate the match result encoding to ensure I'm using the right values.
Results are stored as WIN/LOSS/DRAW — let me redo all three queries with the correct values:
Now let me also run a combined query for the optimal combo, and get sources:
Here's the full breakdown:
| Copies | Matches | W | L | Winrate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68 | 32 | 35 | 47.8% |
| 1 | 191 | 101 | 87 | 53.7% |
| 2 | 301 | 158 | 136 | 53.7% |
| 3 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 28.6% ⚠️ |
Verdict: 1 or 2 copies both yield the same 53.7% WR — a clean +6% vs playing none. The 3-copy sample is too small to be meaningful. No strong advantage to running 2 over 1.
| Copies | Matches | W | L | Winrate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 221 | 106 | 109 | 49.3% |
| 1 | 62 | 35 | 27 | 56.5% |
| 2 | 198 | 110 | 85 | 56.4% |
| 3 | 86 | 42 | 42 | 50.0% |
Verdict: 1–2 Trinispheres is the sweet spot (~56.5% WR). Going to 3 drops back to parity. Trinisphere looks like a bigger needle-mover than Thief of Existence.
| Copies | Matches | W | L | Winrate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 182 | 94 | 83 | 53.1% |
| 1 | 329 | 170 | 154 | 52.5% |
| 2 | 50 | 24 | 25 | 49.0% |
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83.3% ⚠️ |
Verdict: Dismember shows essentially no benefit vs Prowess — WR is flat or slightly declining at 2 copies. The 3-copy spike is far too small a sample (6 matches). Prowess creatures are small and die to most things Broodscale already runs.
| Thief | Trini | Dismember | Matches | WR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 66.7% |
| 2 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 66.7% |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 61.5% |
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 57.1% |
| 1 | 2 | 1 | 86 | 55.3% ✅ |
The top combos at small sample sizes lean heavy on Trinisphere. The most statistically reliable configuration is 1 Thief + 2 Trini + 1 Dismember (86 matches, 55.3% WR) — a solid, positive matchup. Heavy Trinisphere (2–3 copies) is the common thread in all the best-performing lists.
⚠️ Note: Sideboard configuration choices are correlated with skill/metagame awareness — higher-finishing players may naturally converge on better setups. Numbers reflect outcomes, not isolated card impact.
Sources: Data from 221 Modern tournaments (Jun–Sep 2026), 70% MTGO / 30% paper.