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Red Madness Pauper Winrate and Matchup Matrix

1 requestsStarted 9/30/2026, 8:55:35 PM
Bluesky mention by @BarCar88: @_MetaMage_ @_MetaMage_ What is mono red madness Winrate vs Metagame and its Matchup matrix? Please answer the question based on MTG tournament data. The full thread JSON is available but omitted here.

The "red madness" archetype in Pauper is a strong match for "mono red madness" (Sneaky Snacker, Fiery Temper, Faithless Looting, etc.). Let me now get the full winrate, trends, and matchup matrix for that archetype.

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Now let me get the head-to-head matchups against all top archetypes simultaneously.

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Here is the full breakdown for Red Madness (Pauper) over the last ~3 months (July 1 - September 28, 2026).

OVERALL WINRATE VS METAGAME

Red Madness is the #1 deck by meta presence at 10.65% of entries (721 entries across 187 events), but its winrate is essentially coin-flip territory: 49.78% (excluding mirrors), going 1,585-1,602 with 44 draws. It is a popular deck, but not an overperforming one. The field appears to have largely adapted to it.

MATCHUP MATRIX (Red Madness WR%, July-Sept 2026)

FAVORABLE MATCHUPS:

  • vs Elves: 78.1% (128-36, 164 matches) - Dominant
  • vs Gruul Ponza: 73.4% (69-25, 94 matches) - Strong favorite
  • vs Jund Midrange: 64.6% (113-62, 175 matches) - Consistent edge
  • vs Mono Blue Faeries: 58.7% (61-43, 104 matches) - Favorable
  • vs Spy Combo: 56.6% (77-59, 136 matches) - Slight edge
  • vs Dimir Faeries: 53.1% (68-60, 128 matches) - Slight edge
  • vs Dimir Terror: 52.9% (45-40, 85 matches) - Near-even, slight edge

EVEN/CONTESTED:

  • vs White Aggro: 49.1% (55-57, 112 matches) - Dead even
  • vs Tron: 47.8% (87-95, 182 matches) - Slight disadvantage

UNFAVORABLE MATCHUPS:

  • vs Jeskai Ephemerate: 43.3% (45-59, 104 matches) - Losing matchup
  • vs Grixis Affinity: 39.1% (93-145, 238 matches) - Clear disadvantage
  • vs Gates: 37.2% (58-98, 156 matches) - Bad matchup
  • vs Mono Blue Terror: 37.8% (90-148, 238 matches) - Bad matchup
  • vs Red Rally: 31.2% (58-128, 186 matches) - Worst matchup by far

The pattern is clear: Red Madness preys on slower midrange and creature-based green strategies but struggles hard against blue-based tempo and control decks (Mono Blue Terror, Grixis Affinity), gate-based control, and especially Red Rally, which likely out-races or out-grinds it in the red mirror.

Sources: Data drawn from 194 Pauper tournaments (55% Melee, 35% MTGO, 10% Cardsrealm).