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Modern meta evolution June to October 2026

1 requestsStarted 10/6/2026, 6:35:46 PM
what do you think the meta evolution over the last 4 months?
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Modern meta, Jun 6 – Oct 6 2026 (monthly windows)

I can only report what the data shows. I can't say why the shifts happened. The meta-change log has no bans or set releases after Aug 2025, so nothing in it explains these shifts.

Presence by window (Jun → Jul → Aug → Sep/Oct)

  • Broodscale: 4.6% → 8.1% → 7.1% → 14.1%. It is now the top deck, with a 54.4% winrate over about 4,000 matches.
  • Prowess: 6.4% → 6.3% → 10.4% → 10.7%. It is the #2 deck, but its winrate has slipped to about 49%.
  • Goryo Reanimator: 6.8% → 8.8% → 9.7% → 7.6%. It peaked in August and sits at about 49–51%.
  • Boros Energy: 11.5% → 10.4% → 4.1% → 3.8%. It started as the top deck and has lost about two-thirds of its share. Its winrate is about 50%.
  • Esper Blink: absent from the top 12 in June and July, then 5.9% → 7.2%. Its winrate is 52–54%.
  • Affinity: 8.3% → 8.8% → 5.4% → 5.7%. It has held steady at about 50–52%.
  • Devoted Combo: new in August at 5.1%, then 4.5%. Its winrate is 50–54%.
  • Dimir Frog: about 3% in the last two windows. Its winrate is 54% → 49%.
  • Tron: 5.8% → 4.5%. It has the worst trend, with its winrate falling from 51% to 47.8%.
  • Ruby Storm: about 3–4% throughout, and mostly below 50% (46–50%).
  • Fading or gone from the top 12: Azorius Control (5.2% → 3.1% in August, then out), Amulet Titan (about 4%, out by August), Living End, Grixis Reanimator, Neobrand.

Takeaways

  • The meta started flat. Boros Energy led at 11.5%, no deck was above 56% winrate, and all the top decks sat at roughly 49–52%.
  • It has since moved toward Broodscale and Esper Blink. Both are overperforming, and Broodscale is doing it at the highest share.
  • Prowess and Goryo are well played but only around 49–51%.
  • Entry counts per window roughly doubled (Broodscale went from 96 entries to 734). Part of the late-window increase probably comes from more tournaments being tracked, so I'd trust percentages over raw counts.

If you want, I can look at Broodscale's matchup spreads or card changes next.

Sources
Data from 330 tournaments between Jun 6 and Oct 6: 66% MTGO, 34% Melee.