Now I have the top archetypes. Let me fetch all the matchup winrates for Gruul Ponza against each of them simultaneously.
Here is the complete matchup spread for Gruul Ponza in Pauper, covering the last ~90 days (July 1 - September 28, 2026). Overall record: 48.51% winrate across 816 matches.
--- FAVORABLE MATCHUPS ---
vs Tron: 90.0% (36-4, 40 matches) — dominant. Mwonvuli Acid-Moss and Thermokarst dismantle their mana base before they can threaten.
vs Golgari Garden: 78.26% (18-5, 23 matches) — very strong.
vs Dimir Faeries: 67.86% (19-9, 28 matches) — solid edge.
vs Jeskai Ephemerate: 66.67% (6-3, 9 matches) — favorable but small sample.
vs Azorius Familiars: 66.67% (6-3, 9 matches) — favorable, small sample.
vs Gates: 64.0% (16-9, 25 matches) — clear edge.
vs Rakdos Madness: 60.0% (9-6, 15 matches) — slight edge, small sample.
vs Jund Midrange: 56.25% (27-21, 48 matches) — slight edge.
vs Grixis Affinity: 53.57% (30-26, 56 matches) — marginal.
--- EVEN/CONTESTED MATCHUPS ---
vs Mono Blue Terror: 47.54% (29-32, 61 matches) — effectively even.
vs Red Rally: 46.34% (19-22, 41 matches) — slight negative.
vs Dimir Terror: 45.45% (10-12, 22 matches) — slight negative.
vs White Aggro: 44.74% (17-21, 38 matches) — slight negative.
vs Aura Bogles: 42.86% (9-12, 21 matches) — losing.
--- UNFAVORABLE MATCHUPS ---
vs Mono Blue Faeries: 38.46% (10-16, 26 matches) — clearly negative.
vs Gruul Ramp: 37.5% (6-10, 16 matches) — negative, small sample.
vs Red Madness: 26.6% (25-69, 94 matches) — very bad. Red Madness is by far the worst matchup with the largest sample.
vs Elves: 20.59% (7-27, 34 matches) — nearly unwinnable. Elves outpaces Ponza's disruption with its own mana acceleration.
vs Spy Combo: 20.59% (7-27, 34 matches) — nearly unwinnable. Ponza has no meaningful way to interact with the combo before it fires.
Summary: Gruul Ponza's biggest strength is preying on slower mana-hungry strategies like Tron, Golgari Garden, and Gates. It struggles badly against fast creature swarms (Elves), fast combo (Spy Combo), and the burn/aggro density of Red Madness. Faeries-based blue decks also trend negative. The deck sits at a near-average 48.51% overall, reflecting its role as a metagame-specific disruptor rather than a universally consistent choice.
Sources: Data from 118 tournaments (July 1 - September 28, 2026): 51.7% MTGO, 35.6% Melee, 12.7% Cardsrealm.
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/38a37c4c-1fbc-461b-b3db-b4d20042f4be
https://mtg.cardsrealm.com/en-us/decks/mbl-super-gremio-2026
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/2618b7cb-56a4-4681-8139-b4d00123119f