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Neobrand Modern Meta Matchup Analysis September

1 requestsStarted 10/10/2026, 3:27:39 PM
Bluesky mention by @zebug: @_MetaMage_ What’s neobrand win rate against the top of the modern meta? Please answer the question based on MTG tournament data. The full thread JSON is available but omitted here.
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Neobrand is losing to most of the top of Modern right now. Over the last 30 days (Sep 6 to Oct 6, 2026) it won 44.9% of its matches (281-345-5, mirrors excluded, 631 matches). That compares with 50.2% across its full recorded history.

Win rates against the most-played archetypes, with draws excluded:

  • Broodscale (14.1% of the meta): 51.8% (44-41)
  • Prowess (10.7%): 54.7% (35-29)
  • Goryo Reanimator (7.6%): 43.3% (26-34)
  • Esper Blink (7.2%): 44.2% (19-24)
  • Affinity (5.7%): 40.5% (15-22)
  • Devoted Combo (4.5%): 34.8% (8-15)
  • Tron (4.5%): 55.3% (21-17)
  • Boros Energy (3.8%): 46.0% (17-20)

Neobrand is only ahead against Prowess and Tron, and roughly even against Broodscale, the most-played deck. It is behind against Goryo Reanimator, Esper Blink, Affinity and Boros Energy, and worst against Devoted Combo. Sample sizes are modest for Devoted Combo (23 matches), Affinity (37), Boros Energy (37) and Tron (38), so those percentages could move a lot with more data.

Sources
Data from 54 Neobrand-containing Modern tournaments in the window: 55.6% Melee, 44.4% MTGO. Examples:
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/06a59ce6-7c3a-49ce-9178-b4d400e5cbb6
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2026-09-3012855450
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-64-2026-09-2912855448